As futures proof to be more and more unpredictable it becomes more important to deploy scenario thinking. Next to the most likely scenario, create 2 scenarios which will allow you to respond fast, and will make your organization more aware of signals which might indicate changes to the status quo.

Shell started scenario planning as a strategic tool for managers.

Create a sense of Semper Paratus (used by the US Coast Guard), making sure the organization is “always ready”.

Scenario Planning – uses stories about alternative futures to challenge assumptions of the present. The process does not attempt to predict the future but instead aims to explore plausible futures to infirm strategy. Harvard Business Review July-Aug 2020.

Horizon scanning; search for weak signals of change, also in new places (trends PMI, capital goods market,…).

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